Mayweather vs Canelo Part IV Main Event

Floyd Mayweather Jr (44-0 26 KOs) vs Saul Canelo Alvarez (42-0-1 30 KOs)

This is the main event and featured attraction for the September 14^th pay per view card. It pits a 36 year old Mayweather, one of the best boxers in the sport, again going up to Super Welterweight (154) for a third time to take on the undefeated Canelo Alvarez. All of Mayweather’s fights north of Welterweight have been title bouts as he’s previously beaten Oscar De La Hoya (where he picked up a WBC title) and Miguel Cotto, for Cotto’s WBA Super Junior Middleweight belt. Despite the added hardware, Mayweather’s performances have notably suffered. Versus De La Hoya, Oscar’s size and jab gave Mayweather plenty of trouble before his stamina cost him in the late rounds. Versus Cotto, the size of the opponent didn’t trouble Mayweather, as at the time both men were blown up Welterweights, and Floyd won pretty handily on the scorecards (three rounds short of a shut out on two cards) however Cotto’s relentless pressure allowed him to cause more damage to Floyd than a normal opponent would. 

Mayweather shouldn’t have those problems with Canelo Alvarez who has been criticized in past for fighting in spurts. Another thing Floyd has going for him in this fight is the weight, the previous two bouts at Super welterweight were fought at the full division limit, meaning opponents could weigh up to 154 pounds. This title bout with Canelo Alvarez is fought at a catchweight of 152. Not good for Canelo who has had notable struggles getting down to 154, and two extra pounds will not help him any. I feel Mayweather’s defensive counter punching style will be all wrong for Canelo who will most likely have to press the action and take punishment if he wants to get the win over Mayweather.

Final Thoughts: On paper this is Mayweather’s toughest opponent in years, a young strong undefeated challenger, who’s a belt holder on top of it, what’s not to like? The catchweight, in my opinion takes away greatly from this super fight. Manny Pacquiao got a fair amount of flak for his catchweight bouts vs Miguel Cotto & Antonio Margarito, I particularly didn’t like Pacquiao’s trainer being overly vocal about saying they could “beat Cotto at any weight” if that’s the case, why specifically fight at 145? Looking at the Cotto situation in further detail, at the time Pacquiao was seen as the #1 or #2 overall boxer in the sport, which on paper gives him the edge over virtually anyone, keeping that in mind, fighting Cotto at 145 oppose to the full Welterweight just stacks the deck more in Pacquiao’s favor.    

Looking at Mayweather-Canelo, Canelo is going to need every advantage he can get, and even at his young age of twenty three, a catchweight does not benefit him in any way. Mayweather has a habit of making just about every opponent he faces look ordinary, and I see the bout with Canelo going more of the same. One of Canelo’s only chances to win is if Mayweather chooses to stand and trade for extended periods of time, but considering Floyd’s edge in hand and foot speed, why would Mayweather disadvantage himself like that?  I’d prefer to see a more competitive fight, but I fear Canelo lacks the diversity in his attack to seriously trouble Mayweather.  Look for Floyd to pot shot and counter punch his way to a decision victory. 

Mayweather vs Canelo Part III: Co-Main Event

Danny García 26-0 (16 KOs) vs Lucas Matthysee 34-2 (32 KOs)
        This is the co-main event for the Mayweather-Canelo card and is a bout lots of hardcore fans have wanted to see, because it features two of the best fighters at junior welterweight. A notable common opponent for both men was Zab Judah, who García beat by decision in his last fight, while Matthysee lost a one point split decision on all three cards. The early round inactivity of Matthysee cost him, as despite scoring a knockdown in the tenth round it wasn’t enough to get the decision. Losing to Judah not only cost Lucas his undefeated record which was 27-0 at the time, but a shot at the IBF title, a belt Judah would go on to win his next fight.                                                                                                                

       Matthysee’s second loss of his career came in the form of another split decision, this time to current IBF Welterweight Champion Devon Alexander. After hearing about all the claims of this fight being a robbery I had to see for myself. After viewing the fight in full, I can’t disagree. This time Lucas didn’t beat himself with inactivity as by fights end according to compubox Matthysee had thrown 113 more punches than Alexander and landed 23 more, additionally he even scored a knockdown in the fourth round. Surly a disappointing loss, but from a performance stand point, Lucas didn’t lose any standing as with the fight in Missouri, it can be considered a hometown decision for Alexander.                                                                                

       Since the Alexander loss, Matthysee has gone on to stop his next six opponents and pick up an Interim title along the way. The title he won was from longtime WBC mandatory challenger Ajose Olusegun, and sets Matthysee up for this current crack at unified titlist Danny García. Matthysee was slated to fight for the vacant WBC Junior Welterweight belt on a previous Mayweather undercard, but was sick and unable to do so. Pablo Cesar Cano took his place and was beaten to a bloody pulp by Erik Morales who picked up the belt and became the first Mexican to win alphabet titles in four divisions (super bantam 122lbs, featherweight 126lbs, super feather 130lbs and Super Lightweight 140lbs) Morales would lose the title after missing weight before a defense versus current champ Danny García.

        Matthysee is a skilled come forward brawler who seems to have fixed his problems of starting fights slow, as he’s coming off an impressive third round stoppage over IBF 140 champ Lamont Peterson. The fight was at 141, but Matthysee proved he could handle someone who could both box and punch by tearing through Peterson.

      García is an interesting case, as despite not looking overly impressive as an all-around complete fighter, he continuously finds ways to win fights. An example of that would be his unification bout aired on HBO vs Amir Khan as through two rounds Khan looked way too fast for García, and on his way to a pretty easy decision, all that changed with one right hand in the third round that put Khan down. Khan was never able to recover, and two knockdowns later, the ref stopped the fight, and García added Amir Khan’s WBA title to his WBC belt. Another fight where García displayed his power punching was in the rematch vs Erik Morales, which he ended via left hook in the fourth round. García has shown that he packs some pop behind his punches, but I don’t think it would be wise for him to turn it into a slugfest vs Matthysee. Garcia has an edge in both hand and foot speed, and could beat Lucas to the punch, but I’m not sure how long he would be able to sustain it. García also didn’t seem to fair too well in the late rounds vs Zab Judah.

Final Thoughts: Similar to Molina-Smith we have a title fight that features a clash in boxing styles with the co-main event of García vs Matthysee, that said with his speed I feel Danny has more ways to win this fight, as he can afford to box Matthysee from a distance, however I don’t think Lucas will allow that to happen, he’s been on quite a tear as of late and by the mid rounds I expect his fast pace to have taken its toll enough to force a stoppage.

Mayweather vs Canelo Part II Smith vs Molina

The next fight to be previewed on the September 14th pay per view is the Junior Middleweight title clash between IBF champ Ishe Smith (25-5, 11 KOs) vs challenger Carlos Molina (21-5-2, 6 KOs). Both men have been fighting at a high level the last couple years, however it's taken them numerous setbacks to finally reach the title stage. Challenger Carlos Molina had a late start in getting into boxing, but he's made up for it by constantly fighting opponents who are current or former Elite level including: Mike Alvarado (decision loss), former IBF Welterweight Champion Kermit Cintron (win), current WBA Interim Champ Erislandy Lara (draw), James Kirkland and former undisputed Welterweight champion Cory Spinks. The bolded names are the bouts that will be looked at in greater detail. Carlos is a tricky stylistic match up, and at first glance his aggressive style brings slight comparisons to former Lightweight Champ Juan Diaz with two exceptions being #1 Molina uses more spoiling tactics i.e holds more, and despite both men not having a ton of KO power, #2 Diaz is actually able to break opponents down and get the stoppage, where given Molina's six stoppages in twenty one wins he has proven unable to.

Molina has shown that he's not just a come forward brawler and he can employ other tactics in order to win, most notably holding. This can be seen extensively in the bouts with Lara and Kirkland. Versus Lara Molina had a consistent effort throughout however it looked like all the holding wore Molina down, as Teddy Atlas unofficially had Lara taking the last three rounds of their ten round fight. Those final three rounds were likely the difference, as the fight was scored even on two scorecards, and wound up a draw.

In a fight held in Texas on HBO versus James Kirkland scorecards were not the issue, as through nine rounds Molina appeared to have the clear edge by putting together short combos and falling into clinches, a strategy that left the power punching Kirkland clueless. Kirkland had a brief moment of success when he broke free from a clinch and was able to put Molina on the canvas at the end of round ten. This is where things get fishy. The ref begins a count on the downed Molina, Carlos is able to beat the count and is up at the count of four. While the ref is still counting, Molina's corner man briefly enters the ring, but is told to leave by the ref.  The ref then finishes his mandatory eight count, goes over to the ringside officials, and after consulting decides to DQ Molina, which gives Kirkland the win. In the aftermath Molina's team filed an appeal claiming that a Texas commission rule states when a fighter is knocked down at the end of the round, when he gets to his feet, that should be the end of the round. However the unified rules of boxing state that mandatory eight counts are to be done after knockdowns. Confusion aside, it's disappointing the fans didn't get to see the last two rounds. 

Since the loss to Kirkland, Molina has won back to back dominant decisions (a ten round and twelve round) where he lost a total of one round on two scorecards. With Molina lacking knockout power, it's very important for him to come out, set the pace, and make it very clear in the judges eyes who's controlling the action, which brings me to title holder Ishe Smith. 

Just like Molina, Ishe Smith also has five losses on his record, and doesn't have a ton of punching power, however that's where the comparisons of their in ring styles end. Unlike Molina, Smith has a more defensive approach and chooses to counter punch and too often fights in spurts. These choices have cost Ishe in some of his fights, take for example in 2007 vs Sechew Powell. Through the first four rounds Smith was very inactive, and clearly being out thrown and landed. For the most part Ishe looked unwilling to stand in the pocket and trade punches with the stronger Powell, yet Smith was still able to score a knockdown in the 4th round. Knockdown aside, Ishe's punching activity really cost him in this fight as into round 7 he was credited with landing 62 out of 163 punches or 38%. Smith finished the last two rounds strong, winning them on the unofficial ringside judge Harold Lederman's card, which gave him a one point win, unofficially. Official scores were read and Powell took the decision on all three cards 97-92 eight rounds to two (Powell loses a point because he got knocked down). Smith's inactivity obviously hurt him in the judges eyes, but giving Ishe only two rounds is poor scoring. 

This wasn't the last of Ishe Smith's fights to have questionable judging as three fights later, Ishe took on the undefeated Pawal Wolak in Brooklyn. Something else worth mentioning is that for this fight Ishe had a new head trainer, Eddie Mustafa Muhammad.  Versus Wolak Ishe started out fast landing combinations, which is something he would do frequently through the ten round fight. Wolak was very consistent in applying pressure, but as the commentators noted it wasn't effective. Despite Wolak pressing the action, he wasn't capitalizing on it and seemed to have lots of trouble landing clean punches on Ishe. With the ten rounds complete scorecards were read and Ishe Smith took the decision, however two scorecards had the fight 96-94 or 6 rounds to four, very shocking, considering that's one more round for Wolak away from a majority draw. Night and day from the Powell-Smith scorecards which were very wide, despite the fight appearing to be much closer.

Smith's last loss was in 2010 when he went up to Middleweight (160 pounds) to take on prospect Fernando Guerrero. The ten round affair had plenty of dynamic two way action, but around the midway point of the fight the commentators noted that Ishe seemed to be taking the first minute of every round off.  Ishe was deducted a point in the 6th round for a low blow, but made up for it by dropping Guerrero with a counter shot near the end of the eighth round. However that wasn't enough for the judges and Guerrero took the decision in a relatively close fight on all three scorecards, minus the one judge who had it 97-91.

Final Thoughts - when looking at this title fight my big x factor will be who can control distance, as Molina likes to press the action by throwing punches and or clinching while Ishe would prefer to box & move. Ishe's punch activity is also something to keep note of, as it has cost him several times in the past. I could easily see this bout ending in a draw, but I give a slight edge to Molina, because if Ishe has too many dry spells where he's not throwing punches, Molina could capitalize by throwing and landing punches. And if that's the case, judges tend to score for the more active fighter. 

Mayweather vs Canelo Part I

September 14th features one of the biggest bouts of the boxing year when the undefeated Floyd Mayweather Jr 44-0, 26 wins by KO takes on twenty three year old Saul Canelo Alvarez 42-0-1.  I'll have more information on the main event later but below is an event preview looking at the rest of the pay per view card.

Ashley Theophane 31-5-1 10 KOs vs Pablo Cesar Cano 26-3-1 20 KOs Welterweights

This bout is set to open up the PPV broadcast, and features two men who've been in with numerous world champions. Theophane has fought WBO 140lb champ DeMarcus Corley, current WBC/WBA 140 lb unified titlist Danny Garcia as well as two time Welterweight title challenger Delvin Rodriguez. Cano’s also fought known names and World Champions having been in with Shane Mosley, Erik Morales (in a bout for the vacant WBC 140lb title) and Paulie Malignaggi. Theophane’s biggest career win is a close/debatable ten round majority decision at 150lbs vs Delvin Rodriguez (who was ranked #3 by the IBF at Welterweight when they fought).

After watching Theophane-Rodriguez I came away more impressed with Ashley’s performance particularly his ability to stay in the pocket and his stamina/endurance. However I still struggle to see how Theophane clearly won six rounds. For what it’s worth Teddy Atlas gave Theophane rounds 7, 8 and 10. Maybe the bias commentary didn’t give Theophane due credit during the earlier rounds (you could make a case Ashley took round two or four additionally) but even adding those two rounds, where’s the sixth to give Theophane a tally of 96? That aside, hats off to Ashley, he fought well, and deserves a bit more credit (Tessatore noted that Delvin “dominated the jabs” but despite Delvin’s 260 more jabs throw, it was Ashley with a one jab landed edge 68 to 67.Versus Danny Garcia, Theophane fought at a much more controlled pace, particularly defensively and by fights end wound up the loser by split decision. Ashley lost the fight in the mid rounds, particularly 4-7, which were all scored unofficially for Garcia. Theophane does have a habit of throwing too many looping punches, allowing him to be countered easier (something Garcia took advantage of).

Now for his opponent, Cano is also no stranger to close decisions, as he comes into this fight on a two fight skid. Losing a clear 115-113 decision to Mosley in his last fight, and before that was on the losing end of a split decision to former WBA champ Paulie Malignaggi. He’s still young at 23 years old, but a third straight loss might leave his career stuck in limbo.

Final Thoughts: This is a crossroads fight, with Cano looking to stop a losing streak, while an impressive performance by Theophane could set the stage for a bigger fight down the line. The Mosley loss I find very concerning for Cano given how poor Mosley looked in his previous bouts. Particularly versus Alvarez in May of this year, where Mosley announced his retirement a couple months after the fight. Prediction: I give a 60-40 edge to Theophane, who has recently been training at Mayweather's gym which looks to have re-energized his career. I'm looking for Ashley to come out being the more assertive fighter and fight his way to a hard fought decision or late stoppage. 

next bout I preview is the IBF Title Clash between Ishe Smith and Carlos Molina.